Points proving pivotal as NASCAR's Chase winds down

USA TODAY

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Then there were two in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

There still are four title-eligible berths available in the Nov. 16 season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s victory Sundayat Martinsville Speedway — the first through six races of the Chase by a driver not competing for the championship — will add a wrinkle to how they are determined.

At least half of the field for the one-race playoff for Homestead will be set by points — which bodes well for the five of eight remaining Chase drivers who scored top 10s at Martinsville.

Jeff Gordon (second), Ryan Newman (third), Joey Logano (fifth), Matt Kenseth (sixth) and Denny Hamlin (eighth) still can guarantee a spot in the final round with a victory at either Texas Motor Speedway or Phoenix International Raceway.

But they also are in much better position to advance via solid results in the last two races of the Chase's third round. Meanwhile, Carl Edwards (20th), Brad Keselowski (31st) and Kevin Harvick (33rd) face a scenario tilted toward "win or else" to keep their fading title hopes alive.

Despite being winless this season, Newman and Kenseth are in better shape than Keselowski (six wins) and Harvick (three) because of a reformatted Chase that added eliminations and four points resets (the final one is for Homestead, where the highest finisher among the four finalists will win the title).

"It's played to our advantage the entire time as far as not having a win," said Newman, whose No. 31 Chevrolet entered the 16-driver Chase as the bottom seed (because it had two top fives in the 26-race regular season, ranking behind winless Greg Biffle's three when the standings were reset). "But that doesn't mean it's going to be from the drop of the green in Texas or from the drop of the green in Homestead.

"It has played to our advantage mathematically, no doubt. We've not won yet, and we were tied for the lead in the points with four races to go."

Despite a persistent drumbeat earlier this season about the importance of wins (which also secured Chase berths), Gordon hasn't been surprised by the shift of the conversation to consistency.

"I've never felt like you couldn't think about being consistent in this format," Gordon said. "You still have to be consistent. Points can still get you through. Your goal is to either win the race or be the highest in points.

"I will say that it makes me feel a little bit better about finishing second to somebody that's not in the Chase. Had that been somebody in the Chase, it would have been hard to swallow."

A fast start such as Gordon's offers only so much security in a three-race segment. Kyle Busch opened the previous round with a third at Kansas Speedway and was ranked second in points before being eliminated in the transfer race at Talladega Superspeedway.

But it's still a better outlook than Harvick and Keselowski, whose struggles at Martinsville were reminiscent of Jimmie Johnson and Earnhardt finishing outside the top 30 at Kansas and being unable to recover in the next two races.

Hamlin said having another spot awarded on points "definitely helps all aspects and opens up the door," but the Joe Gibbs Racing driver also was wary about being optimistic.

"We still have to be solid and still have to do everything we can to show we can be part of the final four," he said. "Eighth place just isn't going to cut it."

Newman has improved his average finish to 8.8 during the Chase (from 14.1 in the regular season), posting five consecutive top 10s while doubling his top fives from two to four in 2014.

The surge coincides with a stretch of eight straight return trips to tracks, and Newman said the improvement is natural for his first year at Richard Childress Racing as the team adapts to his style.

Texas marks the fourth of five 1.5-mile ovals in the Chase, and Newman, who won there in 2003 (his second full year in NASCAR's premier series), has top 10s at the past two (sixth at Kansas, seventh at Charlotte). The high-speed track likely won't be as much of a slugfest as Martinsville, which featured 15 cautions chewing up 105 of 500 laps.

"It's an entirely different race," Newman, 36, said. "But you have to approach it for what it is. If the outfield wall is a hundred (feet) closer, you don't have to hit the ball as far. If you have a really good car at Texas, it makes it that much easier."